What the Results of the First Half 2014 Mean for Investors

Doug Fabian

Doug Fabian is known for his expert knowledge of ETFs, bear funds and enhanced index funds to profit in any market climate.

Presenting Your Halftime ETF Scorecard

Advertisement.

The first half of a most unusual year for the financial markets now is in the books, and that means it’s time to break out the halftime exchange-traded fund (ETF) scorecard to see which funds have led the charge higher, and how those funds compare to the exchange-traded funds representing the major market indices.

Let’s start by looking at the table below of the top-performing ETFs through the first half of the year. Note that the “%200DMA” column shows the percentage that each fund is above its 200-day moving average. This metric is important because it tells us how far extended a fund has become when compared to its long-term trend line.

Ticker Name YTD% %200DMA
SCIF Market Vectors India S/C 62.93 54.01
SCIN Emerging Global Index India 49.44 43.25
GLDX Global X Gold Explorers ETF 45.82 19.77
SMIN iShares MSCI India Small Cap Index Fund 44.18 42.90
SILJ Purefunds ISE Junior SIL-ETF 43.90 18.64
INXX Emerging Global Shares Index 39.38 29.99
GDXJ Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF 36.10 14.59
GGGG Global X Pure Gold Miners ETF 35.53 15.05
EPI WisdomTree India Earnings 28.84 24.79
TAN Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy 26.69 11.70

As you can see by the table of the top 10 ETFs in the first half, it’s all about India, precious metals mining stocks, emerging markets and solar. The election in India of a pro-business Prime Minister was great for stocks in that country, and the rise in gold and silver prices helped mining stocks do very well. The rise in oil prices prompted renewed buying interest in alternative energy stocks like solar.

Advertisement.

Now, as you can see, the huge gains in the top 10 ETFs outperform the still very strong performance of the major market indices. The table below shows the ETFs we use to mirror the most important market measures.

Ticker Name YTD% %200DMA
DIA SPDR DJIA Trust 1.46 4.32
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 5.97 7.19
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF 2.99 5.50
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF 1.90 2.87
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Market 3.43 4.84
AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate 2.79 1.55
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond 11.45 5.64
EMB iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond 6.57 4.40
GLD SPDR Gold Shares 10.27 3.13
OIL iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil 10.60 8.05

Here we see that although there have been big gains in all of these market vital signs; we haven’t yet seen a situation where these markets have extended far beyond their respective 200-day moving averages.

The biggest move above the long-term trend line is in crude oil, with the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil (OIL) 8.05% above its 200-day moving average. Right now, gold, bonds and European equities are slightly above their long-term trend lines.

In our Successful ETF Investing advisory service, we currently have exposure to alternative energy stocks, precious metals and mining stocks and emerging markets. If you are looking for a way to generate ideas that will fit your financial goals, then you owe it to yourself to check out Successful ETF Investing today.

Advertisement.

On Time Passages

Well, I’m not the kind to live in the past
The years run too short and the days too fast
The things you lean on are things that don’t last
Well, it’s just now and then my line gets cast into these time passages

–Al Stewart, “Time Passages”

It’s okay to reminisce about the good old days, but I like to live for the now. This philosophy also is important when it comes to investing, because what worked in the past may not work in the now, or in the future. Keep that in mind the next time you lean on ideas, and investment vehicles, that don’t last.

Advertisement.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow Weekly ETF Report readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week about how you can dodge mutual fund fees with ETFs. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below.

share on:
share on:

PREMIUM SERVICES FOR INVESTORS

Dr. Mark Skousen

Named one of the "Top 20 Living Economists," Dr. Skousen is a professional economist, investment expert, university professor, and author of more than 25 books.

Product Details

  • Forecasts & Strategies
  • Home Run Trader
  • Fast Money Alert
  • Five Star Trader
  • TNT Trader
LEARN MORE HERE

Bryan Perry

A former Wall Street financial advisor with three decades' experience, Bryan Perry focuses his efforts on high-yield income investing and quick-hitting options plays.

Product Details

  • Cash Machine
  • Premium Income PRO (exclusively for subscribers of Cash Machine)
  • Quick Income Trader
  • Breakout Options Alert
  • Hi-Tech Trader
LEARN MORE HERE

Jim Woods

Jim Woods has over 20 years of experience in the markets from working as a stockbroker,
financial journalist, and money manager. As well as a book author and regular contributor to
numerous investment websites, Jim is the editor of:

Product Details

  • Successful Investing
  • High Velocity Options
  • Intelligence Report
  • Bullseye Stock Trader
  • Eagle Eye Opener
LEARN MORE HERE

Bob Carlson

Bob Carlson provides independent, objective research covering all the financial issues of retirement and retirement planning. In addition, Bob serves as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Fairfax County (VA) Employees’ Retirement System, which has over $2.8 billion in assets.

Product Details

  • Retirement Watch
  • Retirement Watch Spotlight Series
  • Lifetime Retirement Protection Program
LEARN MORE HERE

Jon Johnson

Jon Johnson's philosophy in investing and trading is to take what the market gives you regardless if that is to the upside or downside. For the past 21 years, Jon has helped thousands of clients gain success in the financial markets through his newsletters and education services:

Product Details

  • Investment House Daily
  • Stock of the Week
  • Technical Traders Alert
  • Rapid Profits Stock Trader
LEARN MORE HERE

DividendInvestor.com

Used by financial advisors and individual investors all over the world, DividendInvestor.com is the premier provider and one-stop shop for dividend information and research.

Product Details

Popular tools include our proprietary Dividend Calendar, Dividend Calculator, Dividend Score Card, and many more.

  • Dividend Investor
LEARN MORE HERE

George Gilder

George Gilder is the most knowledgeable man in America when it comes to the future of technology and its impact on our lives.  He’s an established investor, bestselling author, and economist with an uncanny ability to foresee how new breakthroughs will play out, years in advance.

Product Details

  • Technology Report
  • Technology Report PRO
  • Moonshots
  • Private Reserve
  • Millionaire Circle
LEARN MORE HERE

DayTradeSPY

DayTradeSPY was founded by head trader Hugh Grossman, a retired internal auditor for a Fortune 500 company. After years of first-hand experience trying out one trading strategy after another, Hugh instead developed his own trading system centered around day trading SPY options. That’s it... Nothing else.

Product Details

  • Trading Room
  • Pick of the Day
  • Inner Circle
  • Online Workshops
LEARN MORE HERE