How the Chinese Market has Quietly Risen

Doug Fabian

Doug Fabian is known for his expert knowledge of ETFs, bear funds and enhanced index funds to profit in any market climate.
[Chinese Dragon]

The question of whether to invest in China is one that engenders many polarizing opinions. For every bull out there arguing in favor of a rebound in the Chinese economy and stock market, there are an equal (perhaps greater) number of bears proclaiming that China’s economic data cannot be trusted and that the country is destined for a massive debt explosion that will end up crushing the global economy.

Without getting into every detail of the bull vs. bear debate on China, I will say that I think that there are good points to be made on both sides. In the bull camp, China is unquestionably the second-largest economy in the world, with a burgeoning domestic middle class that has a voracious appetite for all sorts of consumer goods literally from around the world. In the bear camp, China has done a lot of infrastructure building, such as those infamous “ghost towns” where much of the real estate still waits for occupants.

For now, however, let’s put the pro and con arguments aside and look at something that gives us a more objective take on China, i.e., let’s take a look at the price chart of the biggest stocks in the Chinese equity market, the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI).


As you can see, since FXI fell to its March low, the stock has made a relatively quiet liftoff above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages not once, but twice. A late-March surge in China’s benchmark index saw FXI blast above the short- and long-term trend line, but that surge failed to hold in April.

This month, however, stocks in China have been on a concerted uptrend, blasting past the 50-day and 200-day averages again. The logical question now is will this uptrend remain in place, or will this proxy for the China equity market fake us out again?

I suspect that given the recent improvements we’ve seen in China’s PMI metrics (the closely watched HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 49.7, well above estimates for just 48.3), coupled with the latest buying in other China-based ETFs besides FXI, that the short-term answer is that the gains in China will continue.

This thesis is one of the reasons why we have exposure to China in some of our newsletter advisory service portfolios. If you’d like to find out just how to take advantage of the quiet China liftoff, then I invite you to check out my Successful ETF Investing newsletter right now.

Thoughts on Defeat

“We may encounter many defeats but we must not be defeated.”

–Maya Angelou

The American poet and writer served up some great slices of wisdom during her life, but the wisdom in the above quote is one of her best. It reminds us that no matter how tough the struggle, we win if we remain undaunted.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow Making Money Alert readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week about how global exchange-traded funds compare to domestic ones. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below.

share on:
share on:


Dr. Mark Skousen

Named one of the "Top 20 Living Economists," Dr. Skousen is a professional economist, investment expert, university professor, and author of more than 25 books.

Product Details

  • Forecasts & Strategies
  • Home Run Trader
  • Fast Money Alert
  • Five Star Trader
  • TNT Trader

Bryan Perry

A former Wall Street financial advisor with three decades' experience, Bryan Perry focuses his efforts on high-yield income investing and quick-hitting options plays.

Product Details

  • Cash Machine
  • Premium Income PRO (exclusively for subscribers of Cash Machine)
  • Quick Income Trader
  • Breakout Options Alert
  • Hi-Tech Trader

Jim Woods

Jim Woods has over 20 years of experience in the markets from working as a stockbroker,
financial journalist, and money manager. As well as a book author and regular contributor to
numerous investment websites, Jim is the editor of:

Product Details

  • Successful Investing
  • High Velocity Options
  • Intelligence Report
  • Bullseye Stock Trader
  • Eagle Eye Opener

Bob Carlson

Bob Carlson provides independent, objective research covering all the financial issues of retirement and retirement planning. In addition, Bob serves as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Fairfax County (VA) Employees’ Retirement System, which has over $2.8 billion in assets.

Product Details

  • Retirement Watch
  • Retirement Watch Spotlight Series
  • Lifetime Retirement Protection Program

Jon Johnson

Jon Johnson's philosophy in investing and trading is to take what the market gives you regardless if that is to the upside or downside. For the past 21 years, Jon has helped thousands of clients gain success in the financial markets through his newsletters and education services:

Product Details

  • Investment House Daily
  • Stock of the Week
  • Technical Traders Alert
  • Rapid Profits Stock Trader

Used by financial advisors and individual investors all over the world, is the premier provider and one-stop shop for dividend information and research.

Product Details

Popular tools include our proprietary Dividend Calendar, Dividend Calculator, Dividend Score Card, and many more.

  • Dividend Investor