Seeing a Slowdown, but No Recession!

Mark Skousen

Named one of the "Top 20 Living Economists," Dr. Skousen is a professional economist, investment expert, university professor, and author of more than 25 books.

A survey by the National Association for Business Economists this week showed that 74% of economists now predict a recession before 2021.

What could cause a recession? It could be a combination of factors — the U.S.-China trade war, tight money or a geo-political disaster. In July, the U.S. government announced that real gross output (GO), the broadest measure of economic spending, rose only 1.6% in the first quarter, much less than real gross domestic product’s (GDP) increase of 3.1%. For my press release on first-quarter gross output (GO), go to www.grossoutput.com.

The Economic Leading Indicator Index, put out by the Conference Board, declined for the first time this year in June. The Conference Board reported, “The US Leading Economic Indicators Index fell in June, the first decline since last December, primarily driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance claims.”

A negative yield curve — where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates — also is evidence of a possible recession. The last two times we had an inverted yield curve (2000 and 2007) we had recessions.

The Conference Board added, “For the first time since late 2007, the yield spread made a small negative contribution. As the U.S. economy enters its 11th year of expansion, the longest in American history, the index suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year.”

If the inverted yield curve continues, it would suggest a slowdown ahead and perhaps the end of the 11-year bull market.

There is growing talk in the White House for the need to stimulate the economy to prevent a recession, through tax cuts and more government spending. More importantly, monetary policy is already starting to loosen. As the following chart indicates, the broad-based money supply (M3) is now growing at 9.3% a year in the United States.

That probably means the slowdown in economic growth in the United States is temporary. A full-scale recession is unlikely at this stage.

Exclusive  Worse-than-Expected Jobs Report; Tapering Expected to Continue

Good investing, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

Upcoming Appearances

Philadelphia MoneyShow, Sept. 26-28, Philadelphia 201 Hotel

I will be making a special appearance dressed as Ben Franklin!

Other speakers include Ken Fisher, Dennis Gartman, Tom Sosnoff and John Buckingham.

You can obtain free admission to the MoneyShow as my guest by calling 1-800-970-4355 and by mentioning pass code: 048316

Gold is back! Join me for the New Orleans Investment Conference, Nov. 1-4, 2019, Hilton Riverside Hotel. Speakers include Dennis Gartman, Kevin Williamson, Steve Moore, Rick Rule, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Doug Casey, Adrian Day and Peter Schiff. This is the granddaddy of gold bug conferences and I’ve been speaking there nonstop since 1976! All details can be found at http://neworleansconference.com/noic-promo/skousen/.

Click here to register.

Like This Article?
Now Get Mark's FREE Special Report:
3 Dividend Plays with Sky-High Returns

This newly-released report by a top-20 living economist details three investments that are your best bets for income and appreciation for the rest of the year and beyond.

Get Access to the Report, 100% FREE


img
previous article

Dr. Mark Skousen discusses the latest happenings in South American politics, revealing what makes a country prosper.

PREMIUM SERVICES FOR INVESTORS

Dr. Mark Skousen

Named one of the "Top 20 Living Economists," Dr. Skousen is a professional economist, investment expert, university professor, and author of more than 25 books.

Product Details

LEARN MORE HERE

Bryan Perry

A former Wall Street financial advisor with three decades' experience, Bryan Perry focuses his efforts on high-yield income investing and quick-hitting options plays.

Product Details

LEARN MORE HERE

Jim Woods

Jim Woods has over 20 years of experience in the markets from working as a stockbroker,
financial journalist, and money manager. As well as a book author and regular contributor to
numerous investment websites, Jim is the editor of:

Product Details

LEARN MORE HERE

Bob Carlson

Bob Carlson provides independent, objective research covering all the financial issues of retirement and retirement planning. In addition, Bob serves as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Fairfax County (VA) Employees’ Retirement System, which has over $2.8 billion in assets.

Product Details

LEARN MORE HERE

Hilary Kramer

Hilary Kramer is an investment analyst and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience on Wall Street. Since 2010, Hilary's financial publications have provided stock analysis and investment advice to her subscribers:

Product Details

LEARN MORE HERE

DividendInvestor.com

Used by financial advisors and individual investors all over the world, DividendInvestor.com is the premier provider and one-stop shop for dividend information and research.

Product Details

Popular tools include our proprietary Dividend Calendar, Dividend Calculator, Dividend Score Card, and many more.

LEARN MORE HERE