Special Announcement: I’ll be giving a special one-hour Webinar for the LA chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) this Saturday starting at 10:45 am California time (1:45 pm Eastern Time). You are welcome to join us, but space is limited. To attend this virtual meeting, go to https://aaiila.org/april-
“The health and wealth of a large number of individual businesses — small, medium and large — determine the economic health and wealth of a nation. When they succeed, managers create wealth, income and jobs for large numbers of people. When they fail, working people and their families suffer.”
— Shlomo Maital (Visiting Professor MIT Sloan School of Business)
Professor Maital knows THE antidote to the epidemic that has swept the nation and the world into chaos and depression. A healthy business community!
“It is businesses that create wealth, not countries or governments. It is business that decides how well or how poorly off we are,” Maital stated. Amen!
It is not the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that are releasing new drugs or discovering new vaccines to kill the coronavirus. It is private biotech companies, both large and small, that are working night and day to find an antidote.
If anything, it’s the government — the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) — that has held back new drugs to fight the disease. Meanwhile, American workers are suffering far more than the victims of the coronavirus.
The government-mandated shutdown of the private sector in transportation, restaurants, entertainment and manufacturing is killing far more people than this pandemic. Millions of Americans are suddenly out of work, suffering severe anxiety, heart attacks, alcoholism and even suicides.
And all in the name of public safety!
President Eisenhower Warned Us
In his 1961 Farewell Address, President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned Americans of two dangers — a military-industrial complex AND government bureaucrats who attack the “supreme goals of our free society.” He said:
“We must be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
That’s the danger we face today with medical experts, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, who seemingly are willing to shut down the global economy into 2021, all in the name of saving a few lives from the latest pathogen.
In the words of former Bolivian President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, “More and more, everything is either prohibited or mandated.”
Now, it’s happening everywhere, in America and around the world.
May Day! May Day! May Day!
How bad is it going to get if this lockdown lasts until May Day?
It is unprecedented. Goldman Sachs warned a new report, “The Sudden Stop: A Deeper Trough, A Bigger Rebound,” that Wall Street should prepare for the “Biggest Decline EVER.” Goldman Sachs predicts a 34% crash in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter. 34%! Gross output (GO) and the supply chain will fall even more. To see the rapid plunge in the Daily GDP Tracking Estimate, click this link.
No bailout by the Federal Reserve or Congress is large enough to make up for the devastating losses in private businesses. It is now estimated that 30% of all small businesses will never come back.
The Missing Piece of the Macroeconomic Puzzle
My GO statistic includes all business-to-business (B2B) spending in the economy. It is the ultimate supply-side statistic. GDP leaves out all B2B spending in the supply chain. GO includes it.
As Hawaii Pacific University Professor Ken Schoolland stated, “Skousen’s GO model demonstrates that business investment, not consumer spending, drives the economy, thus confirming Say’s Law.”
Right now, consumer spending is plummeting, but business investment is collapsing even more, despite the government’s intervention.
‘Oh, What Idiots We Have Been’
I’m reading the classic book, “The Making of the Atomic Bomb,” by Richard Rhodes, and he tells the story of Austrian nuclear physicist Otto Frisch meeting Niels Bohr on January 3, 1939, where he tells Bohr about the splitting of the uranium nucleus and the tremendous release of energy — the breakthrough that led to the development of the atomic bomb (Frisch coined the term “nuclear fission”).
Upon hearing the news, Bohr struck his forehead with his hand and exclaimed, “Oh what idiots we have all been! Oh but this is wonderful! This is just as it must be!” (p. 261 of chapter 9, “An Extensive Burst”).
The Macroeconomic Breakthrough
That’s exactly how I felt when it came to me one day that Gross Output (GO) was the “top line” in national income accounting and GDP was the “bottom line.”
It took years for me to figure it out, but then it all came together in 2014 after writing a Wall Street Journal article on GO, and a bond trader came up to me at a cocktail party that evening and said, “I didn’t realize that GDP left out most B2B spending,” referring to intermediate production. That led me to the idea that GO includes the supply chain, and it was all part of total spending in the economy, or revenues/sales — what finance people call the top line in financial statements.
I don’t think I would have come up with the idea of top line and bottom line national income accounting if I hadn’t had considerable experience in business and finance.
I thought to myself, “Oh what idiots we economists have all been!” For decades, accountants and finance people have measured the top line (sales/revenues) and bottom line (earnings, net income) in their quarterly financial statements. Now finally, the economists have caught up with them and in the future will measure the top line (GO) and the bottom line (GDP) in national income accounting, as the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is now doing. “Oh this is wonderful! This is just as it must be!”
Now, perhaps my discovery of the top line in national accounting isn’t as big as the breakthrough in nuclear physics, but GO is the missing piece of the macroeconomic puzzle and a true paradigm shift. For the latest press release and recent work on GO, I’ve created a new website, www.grossoutput.com.
I suspect GO is going to be down sharply, more than GDP, in the second quarter, not unlike what happened in 2008-09. Here is the chart comparing changes in GO and GDP.
We must reverse this trend now, or we will see permanent damage to the economy, and years of slow growth, not counting the huge burden we are placing on future generations with an out-of-control national debt.
Why We Are Calling for an ‘Emergency’ Session at FreedomFest 2020
I’ve received lots of inquiries about our big show in Vegas in July. Many investment conferences have postponed or canceled their events but not FreedomFest! We are still planning our emergency meeting and the 40th anniversary of my newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies, at the Paris Resort in Las Vegas, July 13-16 (Monday through Thursday).
It is absolutely vital for you to attend this meeting in July. We are seeing permanent changes in the United States, and not all for the good — you will need to make important changes in your life, your business and your investment portfolio. That is what our emergency meeting is all about, and it will be led by top authorities including Steve Moore, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Steve Forbes, John Fund, Matt Ridley, Tom Woods, Grover Norquist and financial advisors Alex Green, Louis Navellier, Rob Arnott, Jim Woods and Hilary Kramer.
We even have confirmed Hillsdale College as a sponsor and the Club for Growth for the first time.
Two of the World’s Best Timers Coming to FreedomFest
Given our “Catch the Vision” theme, we are bringing together the most successful forecasters and visionaries to FreedomFest 2020. For example:
Jim “The Ace” Woods, editor of Successful Investing, and ranked as the #1 financial blogger in the world by TipRanks, gave an “all out SELL” signal for the stock market on Feb. 27, two weeks after stocks had hit an all-time high and right before the collapse….
And… Alex “The Master” Green, chief investment strategist of the Oxford Club, one of the country’s best investment forecasters, gave a strong “all in BUY” signal on March 24 (“It’s time to load up again”) within a day of the bottom of this market.
Both will be at this year’s three-day investment conference at FreedomFest to give us their latest recommendations.
Special Session on Gold at FreedomFest
Our theme song at FreedomFest is “Freedom and Gold,” and this year it’s especially true. For the first time in years, we’re having a special session on investing in precious metals. I’ve been recommending gold for the first time since December 2018, and made some big profits, with more to come. (The Gold Boom is just getting started.)
I’ve just confirmed Jeff Phillips, president of Global Market Development in San Diego, who is one of the world’s top experts on gold and the mining industry. Plus, Van Simmons, president of David Hall Rare Coins, the world’s top expert in coins and collectibles, will be speaking along with Doug Casey, a long-time gold bug.
We have more than 800 people signed up and are still getting registrations every day. One of our long-time subscribers, a physician from Atlanta, told me yesterday that he is excited about getting out of the house and joining us in Vegas. And he’s a doctor, who is fully aware of the need for social distancing! He has already bought his airline tickets — super cheap!
I just re-confirmed many of our speakers, and they feel like I do, that Vegas will be open for business soon. Tech guru George Gilder emailed me to say that he is coming for sure. He said that his book, “Life After Google,” won a prize as the best social science book in China. Plus, China recently republished his book “Wealth and Poverty.” He has a “very different” view on China that he will discuss at FreedomFest. (We also have Li Schoolland coming, an expert on China.)
We are gathering the best forecasters and visionaries for this year’s 2020 “Catch the Vision” theme. Jim Doti, the former president of Chapman University, is a new speaker. His economic outlook of California and the United States is considered the top forecasting model for the past 25 years. You won’t want to miss his prediction about the impact of the coronavirus on the economy.
Alex Green, the chief investment strategist of the Oxford Club, is one of the country’s best forecasters. He gave a strong “buy” signal two weeks ago at the bottom of this market. He is a regular at FreedomFest.
All subscribers who attend FreedomFest receive two gifts for attending the 40th anniversary of my newsletter: a free autographed and numbered copy of “The Maxims of Wall Street” (new 7th ed.) and a 2020 American eagle silver dollar.
To sign up, go to www.freedomfest.com, and be sure to use code FF20EAGLE. Or call toll-free 1-855-850-3733, ext. 202.
Good investing, AEIOU,
P.S. I was pleasantly surprised and honored by the following announcement by the Center for Individualism.
You Nailed it!
Mayor Goodman: ‘Stop the Insanity: Open Businesses Now!’
Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman has had enough of what she calls the “total insanity” of the economic shutdown that is threatening to cause the bankruptcy of the entire Las Vegas economy.
At Wednesday’s city council meeting, she spent several minutes warning that the lockdown needs to end now because it’s “killing us.” I agree with her.
“This shutdown has become one of total insanity, in my opinion, for there is no backup of data as to why we are shutdown from the start, no plan in place how to move through the shutdown or how even to come out of it,” Mayor Goodman said.
In her discussions with experts, the mayor concluded that the virus isn’t going to go away and, in the meantime, the Nevada economy is sinking.
“This is truly an opportunity for having a bully pulpit as your mayor and I’m going take advantage of that,” she said.
At one point during the meeting, she had a staff member hold up a graph and mentioned the 128 reported statewide deaths. While expressing her condolences over the deaths, she said they represent a small number of people.
“With a population of 3.2 million, those whom we’ve lost represent less than half of one percent of our population which has caused us to shut down the entire state,” she said. “Of the estimated 900,000 who have lost their jobs, 300,000 have already filed for unemployment. These are families that no longer have the ability to buy for their children.”
Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak issued a directive on March 17 and then extended it earlier this month to keep all “non-essential” businesses, including casinos and schools, closed until the end of April.
Mayor Goodman said the closure “makes no sense” and the city, county and state should be reopened.
“We cannot live — going forward — with the medical and health industry telling us this virus is going to be around longer than a month or two — maybe even a year,” Mayor Goodman said.
“For Heaven’s sake, being closed is killing us already, and killing Las Vegas, our industry, and convention and tourism industry we have all worked so hard to build,” Mayor Goodman continued. “The longer we wait, the more impossible it will be to recover.”
The protests are coming. Is the government the servant of the people or its master? As America’s first President George Washington is alleged to have said, “Government is a dangerous servant and a fearful master.”