Hilary Kramer

Hilary Kramer is an investment analyst and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience on Wall Street.

Looking at the past year in the cannabis market reveals that the industry as a whole remains in good shape.

People are still buying marijuana and its derivatives for medicinal and recreational purposes. The only problem is in the way Wall Street has mapped this particular landscape.

The stocks that investors favored a year ago have cratered, shedding 40-90% of their value. But as new names emerge, the industry as a whole has actually gained ground year to date.

Wealth is being created here. It just isn’t happening for people who own Canopy Growth Corp. (NYSE: CGC), Tilray Corp. (NASDAQ: TLRY) or Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NYSE: ACB).

Instead, the money is going to once-tiny retail distributor Green Thumb Industries Inc. (OTC: GTBIF), which is now on track to rake in more revenue than CGC and TLRY put together.

And while growth has stalled for ACB in particular, GTBIF is still looking at doing 75% more sales a year from now than it can book today. That’s where the excitement in this industry has shifted.

Think twice about buying into the cultivators. The world is swimming in raw plant matter, and since that stuff is really just another agricultural commodity, price pressure on producers will remain severe.

Very few investors pour their money into wheat or corn producers with the same fervor that turned CGC and ACB into multi-billion-dollar companies. Similar logic applies here.

But when you move closer to the retail consumer, companies like GTBIF can grow with the market. As the cannabis map keeps lighting up green, that’s a much better place to be.

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