Consider that 80% of hedge funds underperform the market.
Roughly 90% of active traders blow up their accounts – AKA going broke – within the first year.
No one reading this letter wants to match the market.
However, BEATING THE MARKET isn’t exactly straightforward either.
Companies spend BILLIONS of dollars every year to gain the slightest advantage.
While the tools available to retail investors are incredible compared to just a few short years ago, they cannot compete with the big firms.
But then again, maybe they don’t need to…
There’s beauty in simplicity. It FEELS good to understand how and why things work. Movies always quote ‘Occam’s Razor’ to make viewers feel smarter, even if they do misunderstand its true principle.
Think about the Bill of Rights and the Constitution, both written with brevity and clarity. Now compare that to any recent bill in Congress.
Many of the sciences need to be complex. Investing doesn’t.
Experience teaches us patience, prudence, and common sense can go a long way to building REAL WEALTH.
That’s what makes GEORGE GILDERS’ TECHNOLOGY REPORT so intriguing.
This guy predicted some of the biggest technology trends in the last 50 years!
No joke, he convinced Ronald Reagan of the upcoming rise in semiconductors.
He anticipated the introduction of the iPhone 13 years before it happened!
To say he understands technology and its potential is like saying Pablo Picasso could draw well.
Now, we aren’t going to reveal the full contents of George’s latest report…
…However, his simple strategy is TOO GOOD to keep under wraps.
So, we’re going to walk you through an easy-to-understand methodology that can truly enhance your investing performance.
And let us tell you that ANYONE can apply it after reading this article.
Yes, this is just a snippet of what George Gilder has to offer.
We want to make sure Wealth Whisperer readers can get the full benefit, should they choose.
That’s why the link below provides you with EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to a special price for GEORGE GILDERS’ TECHNOLOGY REPORT that COSTS LESS THAN $0.25 PER DAY!
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Investments vs. Trades
Let’s start with some definitions.
For our purposes, we’re not going to discuss day trades or short-term swing trades based on technical analysis or news catalysts.
We define investments as holdings that meet most of the following criteria:
- Multi-year time horizon
- Belief in the business
- Bullish on secular trends or multi-year cyclical trends
- Excellent management that delivers best-in-class performance among its peers.
Common examples might be Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and the combination of its software, cloud computing, business intelligence, and now, artificial intelligence push.
Investments can also apply to ETFs or mutual funds, as well such as the S&P 500 ETF SPY.
We only sell these positions when there’s been a fundamental change in our underlying investment thesis.
A great example is RH Donnely, the maker of Yellow Pages phone books. While management did the best they could, it was apparent by the early 2000s that their main business was dying.
Fun fact: The last Yellow Pages was printed in 2009.
Now, let’s define a trade:
- Positions are held for shorter periods, typically weeks to months, but can last a year or more.
- Driven by a short-term valuation disparity.
- Has clear exit parameters
Trading Around Core Investment Positions
Assume for a moment that you hold a long-term position in Microsoft, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio tells you a stock’s value.
Let’s look at the P/E ratio for Microsoft and the S&P 500 over time.
Between 2010 and 2015, Microsoft’s P/E ratio consistently stayed below the S&P 500.
Then in 2015, it shot up before coming back in only to do the same thing in 2018.
The spread between the P/E ratio for Microsoft and the S&P 500 widened and closed within a year.
Here’s a chart of just that spread with a 20-period simple moving average plotted.
Here’s where the rubber meets the road.
We can say that at certain times Microsoft is overvalued relative to the stock market, and it tends to revert back toward the historical average when that happens. This is known as mean-reversion.
Assume that 80% of our portfolio is invested in the S&P 500 and 20% is invested in Microsoft.
Here’s a simple strategy:
- Decrease our Microsoft holding percentage and increase the percentage in the S&P 500 when the P/E spread gets too high, say anything over 15.
- This could mean 90% of our portfolio is in the S&P 500 and 10% is in Microsoft.
- When the spread narrows back below 5 or the moving average, return the percentages back to normal.
You could do the opposite when the spread goes negative and increase your portfolio allocation of Microsoft.
All we’re doing is looking at one fundamental characteristic and saying, “We expect Microsoft to outperform the broader market over time. Therefore, we use this spread to determine when it has gotten too far ahead of itself.”
Now, this is just an example using one measure. To be thorough, a few more metrics that all confirm the same output would be ideal.
Plus, you want to put this analysis in context because after all, companies can and do manipulate their earnings.
And above all else, you want to know whether the underlying investment story remains intact.
The only place to get that is GEORGE GILDERS’ TECHNOLOGY REPORT.
His in-depth analysis takes you through his picks step-by-step, explaining why he chose the stock and his recommended actions.
Plus, $0.25 per day won’t get you five minutes on the parking meter…
…But it CAN get you GEORGE GILDERS’ TECHNOLOGY REPORT.
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