May Starts Off With a Surprising Bang…

Nicholas Vardy

Nicholas Vardy has a unique background that has proven his knack for making money in different markets around the world.

It was a strong week for markets across the board last week, with the Dow Jones up 1.92% and the S&P 500 rising 1.59% — both hitting new record highs. The NASDAQ also recovered 1.21%. The MCSI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.19% and broke out to a six-month high.

The biggest gainer in your Alpha Investor Letter portfolio was ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN), which soared 9.25% — and that’s after pulling back 3.18% in yesterday’s trading. The stock hit a new 52-week high on news that the BJP party and its allies may have won enough votes to lead a coalition government, positioning BJP leader Narendra Modi as the next prime minister of India. Final results are due on Friday.

As I’ve noted in the past, ICICI Bank is a very volatile stock, and India can be a very volatile market. Certainly, ICICI Bank’s recent price movement bears this out.

Other gainers included Google Inc. (GOOGL), which added 3.48%; Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), which rose 2.58%; Global X Guru Index ETF (GURU), which rose 2.41%; and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ), which gained 2.16%.

Several positions crossed back above their 50-day moving averages and moved back to a BUY. These include the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ), the iShares S&P Global Timber & Forestry Index (WOOD) and Global X Guru Index ETF (GURU).

Two broad themes are emerging in your Alpha Investor Letter portfolio.

First, as I have noted, the top-performing markets are shifting back to the international arena. Despite the mainstream U.S. indexes hitting record highs, the U.S. stock market still ranks only #28 among global stock markets this year.

You see this situation in two of your current Alpha Investor Letter holdings: the Market Vectors Gulf States Index ETF (MES) and ICICI Bank (IBN), up 15.15% and 9.58%, respectively, since you bought them very recently. The Gulf States rank #2 on the list, and India ranks #4. I also see this on a wider level in my “Global Gains” Investment Program at Global Guru Capital, where emerging markets are the top-performing holdings over the past three months.

Exclusive  Two Fidelity Mutual Funds to Buy After Meta Platforms’ Share Price Plunge

Second, there is a divergence between the new heights being hit by the Dow and the S&P 500 and the small-cap sector in the U.S. stock market. It is very rare to have the S&P 500, the benchmark, reach a 52-week high, yet at the same time have the proxies for “high risk,” the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, sit so far below their own 52-week highs. Historically, of the three indexes, the S&P tended to perform the worst going forward — and even that was up an average of 8.7% a year later.

This is good news for your current Alpha Investor Letter portfolio — although I expect there will be some volatility along the way.

Finally, if any of you are coming through London this summer, please drop me a note at, and I’d be happy to meet for a drink in the city that is now the home to more billionaires than any other city in the world. (Moscow is #2).

Portfolio Update

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) rose 2.58% last week to recover half of its recent earnings-related dip from the week before. Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings on May 5 of $2,149 per share vs. a $2,172 per share estimate. First quarter net income of $4.71 billion fell from last year’s first quarter $4.89 billion. It is a safe bet that the world’s greatest long-term investor is not too concerned over this light quarter, and neither am I. BRK-B is a BUY.

WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) gained 2.16% last week. DXJ recently made an intraday move above its 50-day moving average (MA), only to dip back below. DXJ once again pressed above this line in the sand just yesterday and now appears ready to head higher. Your bet on Japan moves back to a BUY.

Exclusive  How To Be the Lead Mare

Google Inc. (GOOGL) added 3.48%. Your bet on Google is also experiencing some interesting technical movement. After touching, and bouncing, from its 200-day MA several weeks ago, GOOGL did the same thing once again last week. This type of price movement is usually a strong buy signal — especially given the recent prolonged correction both Google and the broader technology sector have endured. However, based on its more short-term 50-day MA, GOOGL remains a HOLD.

iShares S&P Global Timber & Forestry Index (WOOD) gained 1.70% last week. WOOD has been on a hot streak for the past month as things continue to heat up after a record-setting cold streak essentially brought the logging industry to its knees last winter. Rising nearly every day since hitting a significant low point last month, WOOD pushed aggressively above its 50-day MA yesterday to become a BUY.

Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF (VNQI) added 1.91%. It is likely not a coincidence that the strong rebound in global timber corresponds closely to a like move in global real estate. This position is up better than 11% since touching down near its 52-week low back in early February. VNQI is a BUY.

Global X Guru Index ETF (GURU) rose 2.41% over the last five trading days. GURU includes many of the top U.S. equity positions, as reported on Form 13F filed by U.S. hedge funds. Form 13F essentially forces hedge funds to periodically “tip their hands” and let it be known what these “Masters of the Universe” are investing in. GURU moved above the 50-day MA last week to become a BUY.

Exclusive  Four Questions This Market MUST Answer

ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN) jumped 9.25% last week and hit a new 52-week high. India has been counting the votes from a recent general election, and exit polls reflect that a conservative coalition government is looking at a win. Final election results are due on Friday, May 16. IBN is a BUY.

PowerShares Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production Portfolio (PXE) gained 1.31%. PXE is the latest addition to your Alpha Investor Letter portfolio. This “smart beta” play on energy exploration puts you into this fund at an excellent time, as PXE recently pulled back from its 52-week high. PXE is a BUY.

Latest Special Report

I invite you to take a look at my latest special report, Hedge Fund Secrets of the Masters. This special report and others, including the 2014 version of The Top 12 Stocks You Should Buy Right Now, are accessible FREE on my website to you and other subscribers.

NOTE: Global Guru Capital is a Securities and Exchange Commission-registered investment adviser, and is not affiliated with Eagle Financial Publications.

share on:

Like This Article?
Now Get Our FREE Special Report:
Alternative Investing: Investing in Timber

Stock Investor editor Paul Dykewicz reveals why investing in timber may be one of the best long-term portfolio strategies you'll find today.

Get Access to the Report, 100% FREE

share on:


Dr. Mark Skousen

Named one of the "Top 20 Living Economists," Dr. Skousen is a professional economist, investment expert, university professor, and author of more than 25 books.

Product Details

  • Forecasts & Strategies
  • Home Run Trader
  • Fast Money Alert
  • Five Star Trader
  • TNT Trader

Bryan Perry

A former Wall Street financial advisor with three decades' experience, Bryan Perry focuses his efforts on high-yield income investing and quick-hitting options plays.

Product Details

  • Cash Machine
  • Premium Income (exclusively for subscribers of Cash Machine)
  • Quick Income Trader
  • Breakout Options Alert
  • Hi-Tech Trader

Jim Woods

Jim Woods has over 20 years of experience in the markets from working as a stockbroker,
financial journalist, and money manager. As well as a book author and regular contributor to
numerous investment websites, Jim is the editor of:

Product Details

  • Successful Investing
  • High Velocity Options
  • Intelligence Report
  • Bullseye Stock Trader
  • Eagle Eye Opener

Bob Carlson

Bob Carlson provides independent, objective research covering all the financial issues of retirement and retirement planning. In addition, Bob serves as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Fairfax County (VA) Employees’ Retirement System, which has over $2.8 billion in assets.

Product Details

  • Retirement Watch
  • Retirement Watch Spotlight Series
  • Lifetime Retirement Protection Program

Jon Johnson

Jon Johnson's philosophy in investing and trading is to take what the market gives you regardless if that is to the upside or downside. For the past 21 years, Jon has helped thousands of clients gain success in the financial markets through his newsletters and education services:

Product Details

  • Investment House Daily
  • Stock of the Week
  • Technical Traders Alert
  • Rapid Profits Stock Trader

Used by financial advisors and individual investors all over the world, is the premier provider and one-stop shop for dividend information and research.

Product Details

Popular tools include our proprietary Dividend Calendar, Dividend Calculator, Dividend Score Card, and many more.

  • Dividend Investor