Bryan Perry
Maybe No Soft or Hard Landing for Economy as Job Market Strengthens
Bond and equity markets are in a much better place than how they ended 2022, with further evidence of slowing inflation providing the bullish catalyst. Aside from what is an impressive labor market that is adding more jobs than forecast, data on manufacturing, factory orders, housing, retail and productivity are all trending lower — which […]
Market Weighs Big Debate Over Outlook for S&P Earnings
After a grand start for the stock market this month, there is so much that remains unanswered amid mixed economic data and a fourth-quarter reporting period that is drawing investors who apparently like the soft-landing narrative back to the market. This narrative has gained steam in light of China’s reopening and the sharp decline in […]
Drum Roll of Earnings Season Getting Loud This Week
The first two weeks of January were up and away for all 11 market sectors fueled by the grand reopening of China, a rally in bonds, a selloff in the dollar and crude oil catching a fresh bid. The third week of January had the market giving back most of the gains, except for Friday’s […]
Key Developments are Shaping Bullish Sentiment
Halfway through the month of January, the market landscape is much more constructive, even though the last half of December saw a flood of selling pressure that was a huge disappointment to what was a down year for the major averages. 2023 is off to a strong start, with the S&P higher by 4.15% as […]
Inflation Might Already be at the Fed’s Target Rate
Princeton economics professor and former Vice Chairman of the Fed, Alan Blinder, weighed in on the current rate of inflation. Last Friday, he wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate has been an “alarming 7.1%.” “But the U.S. economy got there by averaging an appalling 10.6% annualized inflation […]
The $31 Trillion Elephant in the Fed’s Room
So much of the Fed’s narrative surrounding inflation is focused on upward pressure on wages and the cost of professional services. This was, once again, reflected in last Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) — the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator. What is never brought up at the post-Federal Open Market Committee press […]