Earnings

CANNABIS CORNER: A Well-Balanced Pot Portfolio

I always urge investors to respect diversification. No portfolio should ever reflect an all-or-nothing bet on any stock, no matter how strong your conviction about it happens to be.

That’s been true this year in cannabis. Those who picked the wrong one or two cultivators have had to absorb catastrophic losses.

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NYSE:ACB) has come a long way back from the brink, but it’s still down 64% year to date. Tilray Corp. (NASDAQ:TLRY) has been cut in half over the past 11 months.

Move down the food chain and the losses can be even more severe. Remember CannTrust Holdings Inc. (OTC:CNTTQ), which temporarily lost its licenses and has yet to recover its Nasdaq listing? If that was the only cannabis stock you liked, you lost a harrowing 84% of your investment.

But we’ve seen a few massive rallies as well. Canopy Growth Corp. (NYSE:CGC) has managed to gain ground across this rollercoaster year and is currently on track to deliver a 27% win for 2020 as a whole.

Medical marijuana leader Aphria Corp. (NASDAQ:APHA) is up over 30%. And then pot products packager Green Thumb Industries Inc. (OTC:GTBIF) has delivered a seven-fold return (700%) as investors catch on to the power of next-generation business models.

This demonstrates what I’ve been saying all along. The industry is not in trouble. Sales across North America are as robust as ever. We’re still in a “green gold rush” situation where cash is flowing.

The only problem is that too much cash flowed into some of these companies too early. Now they’re having a hard time growing into their valuations before investors get frustrated.

Meanwhile, ambitious and innovative competitors keep emerging. We’re invested in a few of them in my IPO Edge now. I have high hopes for their ability to turn green into gold.

But, as IPO Edge subscribers have learned, diversification is essential. Admittedly, IPOs are hot right now and I’ve picked six 100% winners so far this year, but every early-stage investor expects a few losses along the way.

That’s why we follow a full-portfolio approach where subscribers buy a little bit of everything and trust the home runs to outweigh the missed swings. It’s working. We’re up nearly 38% year to date across the current portfolio.

And similar logic applies in the cannabis universe. I track 10 key stocks in that space. Some are still nursing those deep losses I mentioned while others are making shareholders extremely happy.

Why roll the dice on one or two concentrated positions when you can simply buy the group and do well overall? You have to swallow a few losses, but you’re guaranteed to own the ultimate winners.

Hilary Kramer

Hilary Kramer is an investment analyst and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience on Wall Street. The Financial Times describes Ms. Kramer as “A one-woman financial investment powerhouse” and The Economist distinguishes her as “one of the best-known investors in America”. Ms. Kramer is often quoted in publications such as the Wall Street JournalNew York Post, Bloomberg, and Reuters. She is a frequent guest commentator on CNBC, CBS, Fox News and Bloomberg, providing investment insight and economic analysis. Ms. Kramer was an analyst and investment banker at Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers.  Ms. Kramer founded and ran a long-short hedge fund and has been chief investment officer overseeing debt and equity portfolios. Since 2010, Ms. Kramer’s financial publications have provided stock analysis and investment advice to her subscribers.  Her products include GameChangers, Value Authority, High Octane Trader, Triple-Digit Trader, 2-Day Trader, IPO Edge and Inner Circle. Ms. Kramer, a Certified Fraud Examiner, has also testified as an expert in investment suitability, risk management, compliance, executive compensation, and corporate governance. Ms. Kramer received her MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and her BA with honors from Wellesley College. Ms. Kramer has provided testimony regarding investment policy to the U.S. Senate and is a frequent speaker on the markets, portfolio management and securities fraud and compliance. Ms. Kramer is also the author of “Ahead of the Curve” (Simon & Schuster 2007) and “The Little Book of Big Profits from Small Stocks” (Wiley 2012).

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