Seeking a Potential “Triple” by the End of 2011

Nicholas Vardy

Nicholas Vardy has a unique background that has proven his knack for making money in different markets around the world.

Your Bull Market Alert portfolio had two standout performers this past week: Sina Corp (SINA), up 7.09%, and Bank of Ireland (IRE), rising 7.94%. Both positions bucked the trend in what was otherwise a slow week in the markets. I expect both of these positions to continue their strong upward trend. Emerging markets as a whole have broken out to the upside over the last two weeks, which is bullish for many of your positions.

With so many current positions in your Bull Market Alert portfolio, we’ve got some housekeeping to do, particularly in the area of options. (If you want a refresher on my investment philosophy concerning taking profits in options, see my updated Introductory Video to Bull Market Alert.)

Please play close attention, as your “to-do” list is unusually long this week…

1. Sell your position in Ivanhoe Mines (IVN). The stock ended the week 2.63% higher, and is up a solid 16.69% since I recommended it on Oct. 24. You also made an average of 51.56% on the related options. But with your Bull Market Alert portfolio getting crowded, its time to move on to a better relative performer.

2. Buy the Joy Global (JOYG) July $100 call options (JOYG110716C00100000). Recall that I recommended that you hold off on buying options on this pick last week, as the stock was technically overbought. That was a good call, as the stock has pulled back from last week’s levels.

3. Buy the January 2012 $2.24 call options (NBG120121C00002240) for National Bank of Greece (NBG).

As this “doubles up” on my “Are You Crazy?” pick, let me explain why I think this controversial pick has the potential to be the biggest Bull Market Alert winner yet:

1. This is a bet that the European banking crisis will gradually dissipate between now and January 2012. Super-speculator George Soros may be ready to make this bet as well, after his visit to Greece last weekend, when he praised the Greek government’s austerity efforts.

2. The “open interest” — the number of contracts outstanding on this option — is 5,634, a high number for this stock. That indicates a lot of other smart money is making a similar bet on Greece’s turnaround.

3. NBG options are relatively cheap, as the stock has been much less volatile than, say, the Bank of Ireland (IRE). That means the potential upside is much greater.

4. One large caveat: The bid-ask spread on these options is 10 cents — very high, making it tough to profit from a small move.

The bottom line is that this is a highly speculative play — and don’t bet anymore than you can comfortably lose. But if it works, I believe you could easily make triple your money.

Finally, I want to extend a hearty welcome note to all the new members of the hearty band of traders that make up Bull Market Alert community! And if you have any questions, you can always email me at I am always interested in hearing your comments and questions. You can also follow me on both my blog and Twitter (@NickVardy).

Portfolio Update

Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (ARLP) ended the week flat. I’m still looking to book at least a triple-digit percentage profits on your remaining options. With the bull market in coal intact, this remains a BUY.

Cognizant Technology Group (CTSH) pulled back 2.61% from last week’s record high. With the technology remaining in a bull market, CTSH remains a BUY.

Bank of Ireland (IRE) ended the week up 7.94% higher. Irish Prime Minister Noonan said the ECB’s commitment on March 31 to ongoing liquidity provision for Ireland’s banks was "in effect, an ECB commitment to medium-term funding" in the hope that it can avoid being nationalized. Back above its 50-day moving average, IRE is now a BUY.

Joy Global (JOYG) got off to a slow start, ending the week 3% lower. The good news is that this is the pullback we were looking for. Buy the July $100 call options (JOYG110716C00100000). JOYG remains a BUY.

Nabors Industries (NBR) rose 3.88% during the past week. With oil prices continuing to rise, this onshore oil driller remains a BUY.

National Bank of Greece SA (NBG) rose 1.62% this past week. Super-speculator George Soros visited Greece, noting that the government has made “impressive and unique efforts,” and that the markets “may open for Greece in six months.” As I noted above, buy the January 2012 $2.24 call options (NBG120121C00002240). NBG stays a BUY.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) ended the week up 2.14% higher, after hitting a record high of $129.57. Back up near record highs, NVO remains a BUY.

ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agri ETN (RJA) rose 1.42% last week, rising for the fourth consecutive week. With food prices soaring, I’m disappointed this position hasn’t moved more. As soon as we get your remaining options in the black, I’ll be looking to exit this position in favor of something with a bit more pizzazz. RJA is now a HOLD.

Sina Corporation (SINA) zoomed 7.09% last week to close at yet another record high. This stock is now up 130% since I recommended it back in October. Having already recorded several triple-digit percentage gains in the options since then, I’m (again) waiting for a pullback so I can recommend some more options on this relentless riser. Raise your stop to $92.50. SINA remains a BUY.

Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) dropped 3.27% this past week. Toyota announced Friday it will resume car production at all its plants in Japan at half capacity from April 18 to April 27. Toyota today is much like BP was in 2010. But as with BP. I expect there will be big gains lurking when the bad news clears. Be patient and you will harvest big profits. TM is a BUY.

P.S. I am pleased to invite you to be my guest at The MoneyShow Las Vegas, May 9-12, 2011, at Caesars Palace, where you can meet face to face with more than 100 world-renowned investing experts. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed about how to best position your portfolio to profit — in 2011 and beyond. As this new era of investing unfolds, smart investors know it’s imperative to stay informed and educated. The MoneyShow is your one-stop resource for the most comprehensive education, efficient research, and valuable advice. Don’t miss out… register free today! Be sure to use priority code 021714.

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