Booking Double- and Triple-Digit Percentage Profits on HFC and Taking More Money off of the Table

Nicholas Vardy

Nicholas Vardy has a unique background that has proven his knack for making money in different markets around the world.

After Friday’s rally, global stock markets ended the week in the positive column. The S&P 500 was up 0.68%, while the NASDAQ rose 0.93%. International markets recovered somewhat with the MCSI Emerging Markets Index ending the week 0.78% higher.

Advertisement.

Your Bull Market Alert portfolio had a mixed week. Your energy bet Holly Frontiers (HFC) soared 11.64% and is now up 23% since you bought it. You sold half of your shares and half of your remaining options last week for a gain of 82.68%. This week, I am recommending that you sell both your remaining shares and options in HFC for gains of 23.00% and 146.34%, respectively.

Other positions ending in the plus column were Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (PCL), up 1.86%, last week’s pick Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB (FMX), climbing 1.84% and PowerShares Listed Private Equity (PSP), continuing its streak of weekly rises with a gain of 1.49%.

Your biggest loser was Spanish bank bet Santander (SAN), which ended the week down 6.13% on disappointing earnings. I continue to believe that we’ve seen the worst behind us, and that any substantial pullback is a buying opportunity.

Advertisement.

This week, I am also recommending that you sell your positions in Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS) and Discover Financial Services (DFS), as well as the related options at a slight gain and loss, respectively. Neither stock has really been able to break out to the upside, despite positive fundamentals. So, I’d rather replace these two recommendations with better opportunities in the weeks ahead.

In addition, over the past week or so, I have been recommending that subscribers across all of my trading and investment services take some profits.

The one-way direction of the market, coupled with its low volatility, is making me nervous. The S&P 500 is also nearing a long-time point of resistance that goes back all the way to 2006 and the peak of the dotcom boom in 2000.

I also wanted to highlight some work done by sentimentrader.com. The firm’s unweighted version of a model that monitors advisor and investor sentiment surveys is now at a point that has been exceeded only three other times in 25 years — in June 1997, March 1998 and December 2004. In all of these cases, stocks struggled over the next three to six months.

Advertisement.

That doesn’t mean it couldn’t be different this time around. But the plethora of one-way thinking is making me more cautious than usual.

Portfolio Update

Bank of Ireland (IRE) dipped 2.78% over the past five days, touching its 20-day moving average (20MA). Fitch Ratings affirmed its “Stable Outlook” rating for Bank of Ireland last week and upgraded its Viability Rating by one notch to a ‘b.’ This positive news, coupled with IRE’s recent correction and 20MA touch, should spell good news for IRE’s chart. IRE is a BUY.

National Bank of Greece SA (NBG) dipped 1.84% last week. Greek market regulators extended a standing ban on the short-selling of Greek banking stocks last week until the end of April 2013. This takes a good amount of downward market pressure off of your position in NBG, further tipping the scale to the bullish side. NBG remains a HOLD.

PowerShares Listed Private Equity (PSP) gained another 1.49%, closing its sixth straight winning week. With nearly $300 million dollars in assets under management, PSP is the single-best way for you to profit from the lucrative gains that many private equity firms enjoy. PSP is a BUY.

Advertisement.

Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) fell 4.66% last week on negative news that Apple removed some of Qihoo’s iOS apps from the iTunes store without explanation. QIHU issued a statement saying the app removal was a temporary situation caused by iTunes policy changes. QIHU did manage to hold its short-term $30 support level with a strong show of technical chart support. QIHU is scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 21. QIHU is a BUY.

Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (PCL) rose 1.86% over the trading week. PCL reported earnings last Monday, jumping on good news, pulling back slightly, and managing to end the week with a gain. PCL reported Q4 earnings of $0.49 per share, handily beating analyst estimates of $0.24 per share. Revenue jumped 12.3% year-over-year to $354 million, beating the $300.73 million analyst estimate, as well. PCL is a BUY.

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) fell 6.13% last week after issuing a negative earnings report due to increased capital requirements and loan loss provisions. That said, the bank’s chairman noted that with the exceptional write-offs now behind Santander, the bank should see a marked increase in earnings in 2013, based on the group’s recurrent revenues and cost controls. He also confirmed a dividend payment amounting to 9.6% annual yield — higher than previously estimated. SAN is a BUY.

Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB (FMX) gained 2.48% for its opening week in your portfolio. FMX will report earnings on Feb. 27. FMX’s last earnings report came in strong, with earnings surging 19.8% and revenue growing 19.5% year-over-year. FMX is a BUY.

Advertisement.
share on:

Like This Article?
Now Get Our FREE Special Report:
Alternative Investing: Investing in Timber

Stock Investor editor Paul Dykewicz reveals why investing in timber may be one of the best long-term portfolio strategies you'll find today.

Get Access to the Report, 100% FREE


img
share on:

PREMIUM SERVICES FOR INVESTORS

Dr. Mark Skousen

Named one of the "Top 20 Living Economists," Dr. Skousen is a professional economist, investment expert, university professor, and author of more than 25 books.

Product Details

  • Forecasts & Strategies
  • Home Run Trader
  • Fast Money Alert
  • Five Star Trader
  • TNT Trader
LEARN MORE HERE

Bryan Perry

A former Wall Street financial advisor with three decades' experience, Bryan Perry focuses his efforts on high-yield income investing and quick-hitting options plays.

Product Details

  • Cash Machine
  • Premium Income PRO (exclusively for subscribers of Cash Machine)
  • Quick Income Trader
  • Breakout Options Alert
  • Hi-Tech Trader
LEARN MORE HERE

Jim Woods

Jim Woods has over 20 years of experience in the markets from working as a stockbroker,
financial journalist, and money manager. As well as a book author and regular contributor to
numerous investment websites, Jim is the editor of:

Product Details

  • Successful Investing
  • High Velocity Options
  • Intelligence Report
  • Bullseye Stock Trader
  • Eagle Eye Opener
LEARN MORE HERE

Bob Carlson

Bob Carlson provides independent, objective research covering all the financial issues of retirement and retirement planning. In addition, Bob serves as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Fairfax County (VA) Employees’ Retirement System, which has over $2.8 billion in assets.

Product Details

  • Retirement Watch
  • Retirement Watch Spotlight Series
  • Lifetime Retirement Protection Program
LEARN MORE HERE

Jon Johnson

Jon Johnson's philosophy in investing and trading is to take what the market gives you regardless if that is to the upside or downside. For the past 21 years, Jon has helped thousands of clients gain success in the financial markets through his newsletters and education services:

Product Details

  • Investment House Daily
  • Stock of the Week
  • Technical Traders Alert
  • Rapid Profits Stock Trader
LEARN MORE HERE

DividendInvestor.com

Used by financial advisors and individual investors all over the world, DividendInvestor.com is the premier provider and one-stop shop for dividend information and research.

Product Details

Popular tools include our proprietary Dividend Calendar, Dividend Calculator, Dividend Score Card, and many more.

  • Dividend Investor
LEARN MORE HERE

George Gilder

George Gilder is the most knowledgeable man in America when it comes to the future of technology and its impact on our lives.  He’s an established investor, bestselling author, and economist with an uncanny ability to foresee how new breakthroughs will play out, years in advance.

Product Details

  • Technology Report
  • Technology Report PRO
  • Moonshots
  • Private Reserve
  • Millionaire Circle
LEARN MORE HERE

DayTradeSPY

DayTradeSPY was founded by head trader Hugh Grossman, a retired internal auditor for a Fortune 500 company. After years of first-hand experience trying out one trading strategy after another, Hugh instead developed his own trading system centered around day trading SPY options. That’s it... Nothing else.

Product Details

  • Trading Room
  • Pick of the Day
  • Inner Circle
  • Online Workshops
LEARN MORE HERE