Predicting a Triple-Digit-Percentage Year

Hilary Kramer

Hilary Kramer is an investment analyst and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience on Wall Street.

Speaking of triple-digit-percentage trajectories, I see that my proprietary cannabis basket is up 96% so far this year. That performance puts this industry in the top tier of the entire market… and it’s exactly the kind of return I want to capture.

This week hasn’t been great, but we still see stocks like OrganiGram Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:OGI) climbing 26% in five days, and the energy is palpable. This is where the hot money is migrating.

Do the math. OGI has tripled since the year started. So have CannTrust holdings (OTC:CNTIQ) and Tilray Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY)

My favorite, Aphria Inc. (NASDAQ:APHA), is only a few percentage points from joining that rarefied club. 

You don’t need every stock on your list to become a triple-digit-percentage winner. All you need is more big wins than big losses. 

One 100% win makes up for one 100% loss. In a two-stock situation, you break even. 

But it’s more likely that a 100% winner will keep going while you’ll pull the plug on losers well before they hit the total loss threshold. Even if you don’t, losses never go above 100%, so your downside is capped at that point.

The wins can go on forever. I’ve got triple-digit-percentage cannabis fun in my IPO Edge portfolio. We’re holding on.

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